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2025: No Progress is Regression, Press Onward with Courage

Shao Jiamin

 

Investment is a place where cognition can be quickly tested. It requires rational analysis and the abandonment of the huge burden of wanting to win and fearing to lose. Investment is not very obedient to so-called authority and experience, and focuses on rewarding those players who are smart, diligent, cognition-aware and willing to take risks correctly.

We have seen great changes in the world. Mobile Internet has truly turned the earth into a village in the past 20 years - the speed of airplanes and ships has not doubled, but the power of the Internet has penetrated into every corner. Language is no longer a huge obstacle, and explosive news spreads around the world in an instant. Artificial intelligence is the peak of mobile Internet, leading the investment theme of the future.

Under the great changes that have not been seen in a century, the future holds more uncertainties. For example, Trump's tariff policy after taking office fired the first shot against Canada and Mexico. Who thought of it? The Trump family "issued coins" one after another, which is even more brain-opening. The rising cost of US debt financing and the decline in the cost of RMB financing have left huge room for future operations. Precious metals represented by gold and silver are rising in both negative and positive aspects, which can no longer be explained by the traditional analysis framework. This deeply reflects that people are increasingly distrusting credit currencies represented by the US dollar. China has shown great resilience, and even India has to re-examine its relationship with the Eastern power.

In recent years, we have been complaining that the Chinese New Year is becoming less and less "flavorful", and this year may be even worse. The "flavor" requires the gathering of people, the investment of time, and the emphasis on the sense of ritual. Now all this has become costly. With the gradual loss of the dominance of the Chinese New Year by the post-50s and post-60s, the Spring Festival is becoming a not-so-special long holiday. At the same time, the price ratio of assets has also changed dramatically. Stamps have long fallen, and liquor has encountered a cold winter. The information disclosure of one real estate giant before the Spring Festival represents a huge transformation facing real estate. The huge money-absorbing effect of the new quality productivity represented by information technology, and the continued popularity of Bitcoin and gold, indicate that the next wave of wealth distribution is intensifying, and the asset management industry cannot ignore it.

It is not difficult to see several phenomena: First, under the impact of mobile Internet, wealth and opportunities are concentrating on leading companies, a few countries and a few people around the world. It is precisely because of this trend that China adheres to the principle of fairness and efficiency, and the society has maintained sustained stability and won the first opportunity for development. Secondly, there is no such thing as "lying flat" in the world. The reason why "lying flat" is so strong is because of the exaggeration of self-media; which big boss who works hard will shout every day? Third, it is very important to find opportunities and take action. The economic data of the European Union in the past decade has been tepid, completely overshadowed by China and the United States, but Berlin's housing prices have risen by more than 300% with the help of various favorable factors.

What do we need to tell ourselves?

1. Don't let the wealth stories that are rampant affect your judgment of yourself.

The highest increase of "OFFICIAL TRUMP" in one day was more than 400 times, but the real story I heard was that someone turned 5 million US dollars into 2 million US dollars overnight. Wealth is more of an ambush with preparation and tolerance, rather than a hasty gamble of all-out bets. Bitcoin has hit a new high, but how many people have cleared their positions in the face of huge fluctuations. It may be more important to carefully weigh yourself, strive to improve your ability to take risks correctly, and think about where the next opportunity is in various complex connections. The United States started to "clean up the door" in the Americas, targeting illegal immigrants in Latin America, instead of crossing the Pacific Ocean, which gave our competitive export companies more layout opportunities. But in the long run, the medium-term trend of the United States is still "America First".

2. Pay attention to several methods.

First, carefully analyze which assets are truly undervalued and overvalued. For example, the comparison between commercial real estate and residential properties in the past few years; for example, hard technology companies since the third quarter of last year; for example, gold now. The U.S. stock market has been bullish for so many years, do we still need to continue to bet heavily? Will China's high-quality assets always be so cheap? Climate change, environmental protection swings, and the "left-right" dispute reflect both divisions and opportunities.

Second, we must dare to get out and see the heavy hand. The abundant liquidity worldwide has led to a shortening of the cycle of revaluation of valuable core assets.

The third is to formulate a plan for fluctuations. Information dissemination has a self-reinforcing effect, and asset prices will "not turn back until they hit the south wall" and "not release the eagle until they see the rabbit". As mentioned earlier, the best people in the world are actually working as hard as we are, so how can we see the rainbow without going through the wind and rain?

3. Learn from excellent people.

We must admit that the gap between people is so big that it may sometimes exceed the gap between people and monkeys. A popular saying is: Even if you move forward at full speed, you may still be standing still. The biggest way for us to get rid of standing still is to learn from excellent people and achieve "the younger generation is better than the older generation" in several fields. In this regard, DEEPSEEK has set an example for us.

2025 is the Chinese Year of the Snake, which is also the square of 45.

 

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